TapChiPhốWall · Rate Probabilities
Central Bank Rate Expectations
Market-implied policy-rate paths for six major central banks. Mirrors rateprobability.com — refreshed daily after ASX close.
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European Central Bank
Today
PRICING
0.1% HIKE
CURRENT RATE
2.00%
| Bank | Next Decision In | Next Meeting Pricing | Current Rate | 12M Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBA | 5 days | 77.5% HIKE | 0.00% | +70 bp |
| FED | 48 days | 98.0% HOLD | 3.63% | +12 bp |
| ECB | Today | 88.3% HOLD | 2.00% | +72 bp |
| BOE | Today | 97.2% HOLD | 3.75% | +54 bp |
| BOC | 41 days | 94.0% HOLD | 2.25% | +85 bp |
| BOJ | 47 days | 68.8% HIKE | 0.75% | +75 bp |
Implied Rate Paths — Relative Δ bp from current
Implied Rate Paths — Level %
| Date▲ | Bank | Current Rate | Probability | P(Hike) | P(Hold) | P(Cut) | Δ bp | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr 2026 | ●ECB | 2.00% | 88.4% HOLD | 11.6% | 88.4% | 0.0% | +2.9 | HOLD |
| 30 Apr 2026 | ●BOE | 3.75% | 97.2% HOLD | 2.8% | 97.2% | 0.0% | +0.7 | HOLD |
| 05 May 2026 | ●RBA | 0.00% | 77.6% HIKE | 77.6% | 22.4% | 0.0% | +19.4 | HIKE |
| 10 June 2026 | ●BOC | 2.25% | 94.0% HOLD | 6.0% | 94.0% | 0.0% | +1.5 | HOLD |
| 11 June 2026 | ●ECB | 2.00% | 91.2% HIKE | 91.2% | 8.8% | 0.0% | +25.7 | HIKE |
| 16 June 2026 | ●RBA | 0.00% | 66.8% HOLD | 33.2% | 66.8% | 0.0% | +27.7 | HOLD |
| 16 June 2026 | ●BOJ | 0.75% | 68.8% HIKE | 68.8% | 31.2% | 0.0% | +17.2 | HIKE |
| 17 June 2026 | ●FED | 3.63% | 98.0% HOLD | 2.0% | 98.0% | 0.0% | +0.5 | HOLD |
| 18 June 2026 | ●BOE | 3.75% | 67.2% HIKE | 67.2% | 32.8% | 0.0% | +17.5 | HIKE |
| 15 July 2026 | ●BOC | 2.25% | 74.0% HOLD | 26.0% | 74.0% | 0.0% | +8.0 | HOLD |
| 23 July 2026 | ●ECB | 2.00% | 57.2% HIKE | 57.2% | 42.8% | 0.0% | +40.0 | HIKE |
| 29 July 2026 | ●FED | 3.63% | 94.0% HOLD | 0.0% | 94.0% | 6.0% | -1.0 | HOLD |
| 30 July 2026 | ●BOE | 3.75% | 50.8% HIKE | 50.8% | 49.2% | 0.0% | +30.2 | HIKE |
| 31 July 2026 | ●BOJ | 0.75% | 73.2% HOLD | 26.8% | 73.2% | 0.0% | +23.9 | HOLD |
| 11 Aug 2026 | ●RBA | 0.00% | 74.4% HIKE | 74.4% | 25.6% | 0.0% | +46.3 | HIKE |
| 02 Sept 2026 | ●BOC | 2.25% | 100.0% HIKE | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +47.2 | HIKE |
| 10 Sept 2026 | ●ECB | 2.00% | 63.2% HIKE | 63.2% | 36.8% | 0.0% | +55.8 | HIKE |
| 16 Sept 2026 | ●FED | 3.63% | 100.0% HOLD | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | -1.0 | HOLD |
| 17 Sept 2026 | ●BOE | 3.75% | 62.0% HIKE | 62.0% | 38.0% | 0.0% | +45.7 | HIKE |
| 18 Sept 2026 | ●BOJ | 0.75% | 74.8% HOLD | 25.2% | 74.8% | 0.0% | +30.2 | HOLD |
| 29 Sept 2026 | ●RBA | 0.00% | 100.0% HOLD | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | +46.3 | HOLD |
| 28 Oct 2026 | ●FED | 3.63% | 100.0% HOLD | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | -1.0 | HOLD |
| 28 Oct 2026 | ●BOC | 2.25% | 95.2% HIKE | 95.2% | 4.8% | 0.0% | +71.0 | HIKE |
| 29 Oct 2026 | ●ECB | 2.00% | 66.0% HOLD | 34.0% | 66.0% | 0.0% | +64.3 | HOLD |
| 30 Oct 2026 | ●BOJ | 0.75% | 57.6% HOLD | 42.4% | 57.6% | 0.0% | +40.8 | HOLD |
| 03 Nov 2026 | ●RBA | 0.00% | 83.2% HIKE | 83.2% | 16.8% | 0.0% | +67.1 | HIKE |
| 05 Nov 2026 | ●BOE | 3.75% | 82.0% HOLD | 18.0% | 82.0% | 0.0% | +50.2 | HOLD |
| 08 Dec 2026 | ●RBA | 0.00% | 98.4% HOLD | 1.6% | 98.4% | 0.0% | +67.5 | HOLD |
| 09 Dec 2026 | ●FED | 3.63% | 83.2% HOLD | 16.8% | 83.2% | 0.0% | +3.2 | HOLD |
| 09 Dec 2026 | ●BOC | 2.25% | 75.6% HOLD | 24.4% | 75.6% | 0.0% | +77.1 | HOLD |
| 17 Dec 2026 | ●ECB | 2.00% | 83.2% HOLD | 16.8% | 83.2% | 0.0% | +68.5 | HOLD |
| 17 Dec 2026 | ●BOE | 3.75% | 87.6% HOLD | 12.4% | 87.6% | 0.0% | +53.3 | HOLD |
| 18 Dec 2026 | ●BOJ | 0.75% | 69.6% HOLD | 30.4% | 69.6% | 0.0% | +48.4 | HOLD |
| 20 Jan 2027 | ●BOC | 2.25% | 90.8% HOLD | 9.2% | 90.8% | 0.0% | +79.4 | HOLD |
| 22 Jan 2027 | ●BOJ | 0.75% | 100.0% HOLD | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | +48.4 | HOLD |
| 27 Jan 2027 | ●FED | 3.63% | 91.6% HOLD | 8.4% | 91.6% | 0.0% | +5.3 | HOLD |
| 04 Feb 2027 | ●ECB | 2.00% | 88.0% HOLD | 12.0% | 88.0% | 0.0% | +71.5 | HOLD |
| 04 Feb 2027 | ●BOE | 3.75% | 95.6% HOLD | 4.4% | 95.6% | 0.0% | +54.4 | HOLD |
| 09 Feb 2027 | ●RBA | 0.00% | 92.0% HOLD | 8.0% | 92.0% | 0.0% | +69.5 | HOLD |
| 03 Mar 2027 | ●BOC | 2.25% | 88.8% HOLD | 11.2% | 88.8% | 0.0% | +82.2 | HOLD |
| 17 Mar 2027 | ●FED | 3.63% | 75.2% HOLD | 24.8% | 75.2% | 0.0% | +11.5 | HOLD |
| 18 Mar 2027 | ●ECB | 2.00% | 98.0% HOLD | 2.0% | 98.0% | 0.0% | +72.0 | HOLD |
| 18 Mar 2027 | ●BOE | 3.75% | 89.2% HOLD | 10.8% | 89.2% | 0.0% | +57.1 | HOLD |
| 19 Mar 2027 | ●BOJ | 0.75% | 69.2% HIKE | 69.2% | 30.8% | 0.0% | +65.7 | HIKE |
| 23 Mar 2027 | ●RBA | 0.00% | 100.0% HOLD | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | +69.5 | HOLD |
| 14 Apr 2027 | ●BOC | 2.25% | 90.4% HOLD | 9.6% | 90.4% | 0.0% | +84.6 | HOLD |
| 28 Apr 2027 | ●FED | 3.63% | 100.0% HOLD | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | +11.5 | HOLD |
| 29 Apr 2027 | ●BOE | 3.75% | 87.6% HOLD | 0.0% | 87.6% | 12.4% | +54.0 | HOLD |
| 30 Apr 2027 | ●BOJ | 0.75% | 64.4% HOLD | 35.6% | 64.4% | 0.0% | +74.6 | HOLD |